{ "title": "The Telos Decision Record", "author": "Shrikant Kumar", "version": "2026-11-03", "notes": "A record of decisions judged on Telos, not a random sample. Successes are over-represented; process grades were assigned with knowledge of outcomes. See https://shrikantk.com/record/ for the method.", "count": 229, "decisions": [ { "id": "essay:the-universal-machine-and-the-end-of-the-free-lunch#0", "year": "1945", "decisionMaker": "The EDVAC team", "decision": "Store the program in memory alongside the data", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Turning a fixed capability into data makes it general, at a cost in efficiency that time usually repays.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Compute", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-universal-machine-and-the-end-of-the-free-lunch/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:the-number-that-became-a-person#0", "year": "1947–1970s", "decisionMaker": "Bell Labs", "decision": "Put capacity and intelligence in the network: small cells, reused frequencies, simple handsets", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "If the scarce resource cannot be increased, redesign the system to reuse it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Mobile Phones", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-number-that-became-a-person/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:notes-that-talk-back#0", "year": "1951–1996", "decisionMaker": "Niklas Luhmann", "decision": "Link notes to each other instead of filing them under headings", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Design for connection, not just storage; the value of a collection is in what it returns that you did not expect.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Note-Taking Apps", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/notes-that-talk-back/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:every-programming-language-is-a-theory-of-the-programmer#0", "year": "1953–1957", "decisionMaker": "John Backus’s FORTRAN team at IBM", "decision": "Treat the compiler’s efficiency, not the language design, as the real challenge", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Find the single objection that stops adoption and make it disappear; elegance can wait.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Programming Languages", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/every-programming-language-is-a-theory-of-the-programmer/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:paying-a-stranger#0", "year": "1958", "decisionMaker": "Bank of America (BankAmericard)", "decision": "Launch a general-purpose credit card by mailing 60,000 unsolicited cards to residents of Fresno at once", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "A network that needs two sides at once may justify a bold launch, but the risks of the launch fall on people who did not choose them.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Digital Payments", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/paying-a-stranger/#decision-1" }, { "id": "road:xanadu#0", "year": "1960s–1970s", "decisionMaker": "Ted Nelson", "decision": "Design hypertext as a single coordinated docuverse with two-way links, transclusion and versioning, rather than as links between independent documents.", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Too early", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "A complete design that cannot ship in pieces is a bet that the world will wait for it.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Xanadu", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/xanadu/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:a-computer-of-ones-own#0", "year": "1961", "decisionMaker": "Corbató’s team at MIT", "decision": "Demonstrate time-sharing with a modest system that ran alongside batch work", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Make the first version compatible with how people already work, and small enough to finish.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Operating Systems", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/a-computer-of-ones-own/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:a-computer-of-ones-own#1", "year": "1964", "decisionMaker": "IBM", "decision": "Make an entire range of computers run the same software (System/360)", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "A compatibility promise can be worth more than any single product; once made, it shapes everything after it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Operating Systems", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/a-computer-of-ones-own/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:machines-inside-machines#0", "year": "1964", "decisionMaker": "IBM Cambridge Scientific Center", "decision": "Use the machine’s instruction set as the interface, giving every user a complete virtual copy of the computer", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "The best interface is often one that already exists; virtualise it instead of inventing a new one.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Virtualization", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/machines-inside-machines/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:who-has-to-know-where-the-data-lives#0", "year": "1964", "decisionMaker": "Charles Bachman (GE)", "decision": "Store relationships as chains of pointers that programs navigate", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "Coupling users to your internal structure buys performance now and costs flexibility later.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Databases", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/who-has-to-know-where-the-data-lives/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:every-programming-language-is-a-theory-of-the-programmer#1", "year": "1965", "decisionMaker": "Tony Hoare (ALGOL W)", "decision": "Add the null reference because it was easy to implement", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": null, "lesson": "Language and platform shortcuts are permanent. Choose what is safe forever over what is easy now.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Programming Languages", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/every-programming-language-is-a-theory-of-the-programmer/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:a-computer-of-ones-own#2", "year": "1969", "decisionMaker": "Thompson and Ritchie at Bell Labs", "decision": "Leave the ambitious Multics project and build a small system, Unix", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Scope down until it is cheap enough to finish, then let a community extend it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Operating Systems", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/a-computer-of-ones-own/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:software-you-never-own#0", "year": "1969", "decisionMaker": "IBM", "decision": "Price software, training and services separately from computer hardware", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Putting a separate price on something reveals what it is worth, and invites others to compete in supplying it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Subscription Software (SaaS)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/software-you-never-own/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:paying-a-stranger#1", "year": "1970", "decisionMaker": "Dee Hock and the BankAmericard licensee banks (later Visa)", "decision": "Turn Bank of America’s licensing programme into an independent organisation owned by its member banks, with shared rules and no single owner", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "A network rivals will join must be one that no rival controls.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Digital Payments", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/paying-a-stranger/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:paying-a-stranger#2", "year": "1970s–2010s", "decisionMaker": "Card networks and issuing banks", "decision": "Fund card systems through interchange fees paid by merchants’ banks to cardholders’ banks, with rules that kept merchants from charging card users more", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "industry", "positionLabel": "Industry-wide", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When a cost is hidden from the person whose choice creates it, expect overuse and, eventually, regulation.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Digital Payments", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/paying-a-stranger/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:who-has-to-know-where-the-data-lives#1", "year": "1970", "decisionMaker": "Edgar F. Codd (IBM)", "decision": "Protect users from knowing how data is stored (the relational model)", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "A stable interface that says nothing about implementation can absorb fifty years of change.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Databases", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/who-has-to-know-where-the-data-lives/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:every-programming-language-is-a-theory-of-the-programmer#2", "year": "1971–1973", "decisionMaker": "Dennis Ritchie (C)", "decision": "Trust the programmer with memory and leave out automatic checks", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "Trusting the expert scales with the number of experts, not the size of the code.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Programming Languages", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/every-programming-language-is-a-theory-of-the-programmer/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:the-universal-machine-and-the-end-of-the-free-lunch#1", "year": "1971", "decisionMaker": "Intel and Busicom", "decision": "Build a programmable processor instead of custom calculator logic", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "When the platform improves automatically, general solutions beat custom ones.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Compute", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-universal-machine-and-the-end-of-the-free-lunch/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:the-company-inside-the-machine#0", "year": "1972", "decisionMaker": "SAP (Dietmar Hopp, Hasso Plattner, Claus Wellenreuther, Klaus Tschira and Hans-Werner Hector)", "decision": "Build standard business software that many companies could use with configuration, processing data in real time, rather than writing custom programs for each client", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Packaging what many customers need in common can be worth more than tailoring what each one wants.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Enterprise Software (ERP)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-company-inside-the-machine/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:the-blue-dot#0", "year": "1973", "decisionMaker": "US Department of Defense, GPS Joint Program Office", "decision": "Combine the Air Force and Navy concepts into one system with atomic clocks on the satellites and receivers that only listen, so that any number of users could share it", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "A system that costs nothing extra for each new user is ready for uses its designers never imagined.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "GPS and Digital Maps", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-blue-dot/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:the-number-that-became-a-person#1", "year": "1973–1983", "decisionMaker": "Motorola", "decision": "Build a phone for a person rather than a car", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Ask who the product is really for: the place, the device or the person.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Mobile Phones", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-number-that-became-a-person/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:who-has-to-know-where-the-data-lives#2", "year": "1974", "decisionMaker": "Chamberlin and Boyce (SQL)", "decision": "Design an English-like query language for non-programmers", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "Your product may succeed with a different audience than you planned. Watch who actually uses it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Databases", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/who-has-to-know-where-the-data-lives/#decision-3" }, { "id": "road:betamax#0", "year": "1974–75", "decisionMaker": "Sony", "decision": "Launch Betamax on Sony's own design and seek partners to adopt it, rather than co-developing a shared standard with rivals before launch.", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "In a market with network effects, the size of the coalition matters more than the quality of the founder's design.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Betamax", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/betamax/#decision-1" }, { "id": "road:betamax#1", "year": "1975", "decisionMaker": "Sony", "decision": "Launch with a one-hour recording time, favouring a smaller cassette and picture quality.", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Ask what customers will do with the product once they have it, not only what they do today.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Betamax", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/betamax/#decision-2" }, { "id": "road:betamax#2", "year": "1976", "decisionMaker": "JVC", "decision": "Launch VHS with longer recording time and license it widely to other manufacturers.", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "A challenger can beat a first mover by making it easier for others to win alongside it.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Betamax", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/betamax/#decision-3" }, { "id": "road:minitel#0", "year": "1978–1983", "decisionMaker": "French government and the DGT", "decision": "Build a national videotex network and give households terminals free of charge, initially to replace the paper telephone directory.", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Removing the cost of joining can launch a network that charging for entry would kill.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Minitel", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/minitel/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-for-asking-what-if#0", "year": "1979", "decisionMaker": "Software Arts and Personal Software (VisiCalc)", "decision": "Not to seek a patent on the electronic spreadsheet", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When you create a new category, assume it will be copied, and plan your advantage around speed and distribution, not legal protection.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Spreadsheets", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-for-asking-what-if/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-for-asking-what-if#1", "year": "1979", "decisionMaker": "Software Arts and Personal Software (VisiCalc)", "decision": "Launch first on the Apple II, a hobbyist machine, at about $100", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "A product that lets individuals solve their own problem can enter an organisation without asking permission.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Spreadsheets", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-for-asking-what-if/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:who-has-to-know-where-the-data-lives#3", "year": "1979", "decisionMaker": "Patricia Selinger’s team (System R)", "decision": "Let the database choose how to run each query using statistics about the data", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "An abstraction is only as good as the machinery that makes it fast.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Databases", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/who-has-to-know-where-the-data-lives/#decision-4" }, { "id": "road:lisp-machines#0", "year": "1979–1980", "decisionMaker": "MIT AI Lab researchers who founded LMI and Symbolics", "decision": "Commercialise the MIT Lisp machine as dedicated hardware rather than as software for general-purpose computers.", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "A hardware advantage built on today's gap is a bet that the gap will last.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Lisp Machines", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/lisp-machines/#decision-1" }, { "id": "road:lisp-machines#1", "year": "Mid-1980s", "decisionMaker": "Symbolics and other Lisp machine makers", "decision": "Continue investing primarily in proprietary Lisp hardware as general-purpose workstations improved rapidly.", "kind": "focus-and-resources", "kindLabel": "Focus, exit and investment", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "When a cheaper general platform is catching up, move your value into what runs on it before it arrives.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Lisp Machines", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/lisp-machines/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:a-computer-of-ones-own#3", "year": "1981", "decisionMaker": "Microsoft and the PC industry", "decision": "Let any program touch any part of the machine (no memory protection)", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "industry", "positionLabel": "Industry-wide", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": null, "lesson": "Defaults that are safe in isolation become dangerous when the product is connected. Revisit them when the environment changes.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Operating Systems", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/a-computer-of-ones-own/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:an-address-anyone-can-write-to#0", "year": "1982", "decisionMaker": "SMTP’s designers", "decision": "Accept mail from any server and believe whatever it says about the sender", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "When you choose permissive defaults to grow, design the mechanism for tightening them before you need it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Email", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/an-address-anyone-can-write-to/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:the-blue-dot#1", "year": "1983", "decisionMaker": "The Reagan administration", "decision": "Announce that GPS would be made available for civil aviation once it was operational, after Korean Air Lines Flight 007 was shot down", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Opening infrastructure to everyone can create more value than any owner could capture by keeping it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "GPS and Digital Maps", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-blue-dot/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:the-gift-that-runs-the-world#0", "year": "1983–1989", "decisionMaker": "Richard Stallman and the Free Software Foundation", "decision": "Build a complete free operating system, and protect it with a licence (copyleft) that requires anyone distributing modified versions to share their changes on the same terms", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "The rules of a commons determine whether it survives contact with commercial interests.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Open Source Software", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-gift-that-runs-the-world/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-for-asking-what-if#2", "year": "1983", "decisionMaker": "Lotus Development (1-2-3)", "decision": "Build only for the IBM PC, in assembly language for speed, and integrate spreadsheet, charts and database", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Win the platform that is about to become the standard, and optimise ruthlessly for it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Spreadsheets", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-for-asking-what-if/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:ink-that-never-dries#0", "year": "1983–1989", "decisionMaker": "Microsoft (Word)", "decision": "Bet on a graphical, what-you-see-is-what-you-get word processor for Windows", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Win the platform shift, and your format becomes the standard.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Word Processors", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/ink-that-never-dries/#decision-1" }, { "id": "road:lisp-machines#2", "year": "1984–1994", "decisionMaker": "The Lisp community and standards bodies", "decision": "Standardise Common Lisp so that Lisp programs could run on many machines, including general-purpose ones.", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Standards that help your users can also dissolve your hardware advantage; plan for that.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Lisp Machines", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/lisp-machines/#decision-3" }, { "id": "road:minitel#1", "year": "1984", "decisionMaker": "The DGT", "decision": "Introduce the kiosque billing system, charging users per minute on their phone bill and sharing revenue with service providers.", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "A simple, trusted payment system can create an ecosystem of providers almost overnight.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Minitel", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/minitel/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas#0", "year": "1985–1987", "decisionMaker": "Taiwan’s government and ITRI (TSMC’s founders)", "decision": "Found a semiconductor company that would only manufacture chips designed by other companies, with Philips as the main foreign partner", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "When you cannot win the existing game, look for the part of it that others would gladly hand to someone they trust.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Chip Foundries", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-for-asking-what-if#3", "year": "1985–1987", "decisionMaker": "Microsoft (Excel)", "decision": "Launch Excel on the Macintosh first, designed around the mouse and a graphical interface, before bringing it to Windows", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "If you cannot beat the leader on today’s platform, be the best product on the next one.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Spreadsheets", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-for-asking-what-if/#decision-4" }, { "id": "road:os2#0", "year": "1985–1987", "decisionMaker": "IBM and Microsoft", "decision": "Jointly develop OS/2 as the successor to DOS, initially targeting the Intel 80286 processor.", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "A new platform must make the old software run well before it can make new software worth writing.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "OS/2", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/os2/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas#1", "year": "1987 onwards", "decisionMaker": "TSMC", "decision": "Never design or sell chips under its own name, so that it would never compete with its customers", "kind": "make-or-buy", "kindLabel": "Make, buy or partner", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "A credible promise to stay out of your customer’s business can be worth more than the business you give up.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Chip Foundries", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:the-company-inside-the-machine#1", "year": "1987–1992", "decisionMaker": "SAP (R/3)", "decision": "Rebuild its system for client-server computers rather than staying on mainframes", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Moving to the next platform before you have to is cheaper than following after you have lost.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Enterprise Software (ERP)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-company-inside-the-machine/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-for-asking-what-if#4", "year": "1987–1991", "decisionMaker": "Lotus Development", "decision": "Concentrate on a version of 1-2-3 for OS/2 rather than Windows", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When your business depends on a platform you do not own, keep a real option on the alternatives.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Spreadsheets", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-for-asking-what-if/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-for-asking-what-if#5", "year": "1987–1995", "decisionMaker": "Lotus Development", "decision": "Sue makers of compatible spreadsheets for copying 1-2-3’s menus and “look and feel”", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "The habits your users have learned are a moat only while they choose to stay; suing to keep them rarely beats giving them a reason to.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Spreadsheets", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-for-asking-what-if/#decision-6" }, { "id": "road:iridium#0", "year": "1987–1991", "decisionMaker": "Motorola", "decision": "Develop a global satellite telephone network for business travellers and others outside terrestrial coverage, and spin it into a separate company with outside investors.", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "A long build into a fast-moving market needs a thesis that survives the market's likely evolution, not only today's gaps.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Iridium", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/iridium/#decision-1" }, { "id": "road:xanadu#1", "year": "1988", "decisionMaker": "Autodesk", "decision": "Invest in the Xanadu project to turn it into a commercial product.", "kind": "acquisition", "kindLabel": "Acquisitions and sales", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "Fund ambitious visions in stages, each of which must produce something people can use.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Xanadu", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/xanadu/#decision-2" }, { "id": "road:xanadu#2", "year": "1989", "decisionMaker": "Tim Berners-Lee, CERN", "decision": "Build hypertext with one-way links between documents on independent servers, with no central control, and accept that links may break.", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "In a network, the system that is easiest to join often beats the system that is hardest to break.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Xanadu", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/xanadu/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:the-blue-dot#2", "year": "1990–2000", "decisionMaker": "US Department of Defense", "decision": "Deliberately degrade the accuracy of the public GPS signal through Selective Availability", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Degrading a shared good to deny it to a few tends to tax everyone and stop no one.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "GPS and Digital Maps", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-blue-dot/#decision-3" }, { "id": "road:minitel#2", "year": "Mid-1990s", "decisionMaker": "France Télécom and the French state", "decision": "Continue to rely on and protect Minitel as the national online system while the internet spread elsewhere.", "kind": "focus-and-resources", "kindLabel": "Focus, exit and investment", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "Plan the exit from a successful platform while it is still successful.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Minitel", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/minitel/#decision-3" }, { "id": "road:os2#1", "year": "1990", "decisionMaker": "Microsoft", "decision": "After the success of Windows 3.0, shift strategic priority to Windows and away from joint OS/2 development.", "kind": "focus-and-resources", "kindLabel": "Focus, exit and investment", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "When customers adopt the option you control, partnership commitments can become a cost rather than an asset.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "OS/2", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/os2/#decision-2" }, { "id": "road:newton-and-general-magic#1", "year": "1990–1994", "decisionMaker": "General Magic and its partners", "decision": "Build a complete platform for communicating devices, Magic Cap and Telescript, licensed to manufacturers and carriers through a large alliance.", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Too early", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "A platform that depends on infrastructure others must build is a bet on their schedule as well as yours.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Newton and General Magic", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/newton-and-general-magic/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:a-computer-of-ones-own#4", "year": "1991", "decisionMaker": "Linus Torvalds and the GNU project", "decision": "Build the kernel in the open and release it under a licence that keeps it free", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "An open foundation that no competitor can own can become the default for everyone, including competitors.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Operating Systems", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/a-computer-of-ones-own/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:the-gift-that-runs-the-world#1", "year": "1991–1992", "decisionMaker": "Linus Torvalds", "decision": "Release the Linux kernel under the GPL and accept contributions from anyone over the internet", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "A small working thing, released early and maintained responsively, can attract the effort no single organisation could fund.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Open Source Software", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-gift-that-runs-the-world/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-for-asking-what-if#6", "year": "1991", "decisionMaker": "Lotus Development (Improv)", "decision": "Release a spreadsheet that separated formulas from data and organised numbers by named categories, first on NeXT", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Too early", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "A superior design on an obscure platform becomes someone else’s feature.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Spreadsheets", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-for-asking-what-if/#decision-7" }, { "id": "essay:the-number-that-became-a-person#2", "year": "1991–1992", "decisionMaker": "GSM’s designers", "decision": "Put the subscriber’s identity on a removable SIM card, and use spare signalling capacity for text messages", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Watch what users do with your by-products; they may be the product.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Mobile Phones", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-number-that-became-a-person/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:what-you-might-also-like#0", "year": "1992", "decisionMaker": "Xerox PARC (Tapestry)", "decision": "Filter information using the reactions of other people, rather than only the content of the documents", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "The judgements of similar people can be a better signal than the thing itself.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Recommendation Feeds", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/what-you-might-also-like/#decision-1" }, { "id": "road:os2#2", "year": "1992–1994", "decisionMaker": "IBM", "decision": "Position OS/2 2.0 and Warp as \"a better DOS than DOS and a better Windows than Windows\", emphasising their ability to run DOS and Windows programs.", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Compatibility with a rival's platform buys users at the price of strengthening that platform.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "OS/2", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/os2/#decision-3" }, { "id": "road:newton-and-general-magic#0", "year": "1992–1993", "decisionMaker": "Apple", "decision": "Launch the Newton MessagePad as a new category of pen-based personal digital assistant with natural handwriting recognition.", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "When the core interaction does not work reliably, ambition elsewhere cannot rescue the product.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Newton and General Magic", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/newton-and-general-magic/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:the-company-inside-the-machine#2", "year": "1993–1996", "decisionMaker": "FoxMeyer Drug", "decision": "Install SAP R/3 and a new automated warehouse system at the same time, and bid for contracts on the basis of savings the systems were expected to deliver", "kind": "execution", "kindLabel": "Executing large change", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Poor", "lesson": "Do not bet the company on a system’s promised benefits before it has delivered them.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Enterprise Software (ERP)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-company-inside-the-machine/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:where-should-the-program-run#0", "year": "1994–1995", "decisionMaker": "Rasmus Lerdorf (PHP)", "decision": "Mix code into HTML pages and make deployment as simple as copying a file", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "The easiest product to start with often wins, even if it is not the cleanest.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Web Frameworks", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/where-should-the-program-run/#decision-1" }, { "id": "road:itanium#0", "year": "1994", "decisionMaker": "Intel and HP", "decision": "Jointly develop a new 64-bit architecture based on explicitly parallel instruction computing, rather than extending x86.", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "A clean break must offer gains large enough to pay for every customer's switching costs.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Itanium", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/itanium/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:every-programming-language-is-a-theory-of-the-programmer#3", "year": "1995", "decisionMaker": "Netscape (JavaScript)", "decision": "Ship a scripting language in ten days that had to “look like Java”", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "Whatever ships where everyone already is will set the standard; design it as if it will last.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Programming Languages", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/every-programming-language-is-a-theory-of-the-programmer/#decision-4" }, { "id": "memo:the-internet-tidal-wave", "year": "1995", "decisionMaker": "Bill Gates", "decision": "Reorient the whole of Microsoft around the internet, and treat a browser company as the main threat to Windows.", "kind": "focus-and-resources", "kindLabel": "Focus, exit and investment", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "A strategy memo is most useful when it names the specific threat to your core business, as this one did with Netscape and the idea of the browser as a platform.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "The Internet Tidal Wave", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/the-internet-tidal-wave/" }, { "id": "essay:the-bazaar-without-walls#0", "year": "1996", "decisionMaker": "eBay (Pierre Omidyar)", "decision": "Let buyers and sellers rate each other publicly after every transaction, instead of policing disputes itself", "kind": "trust-and-safety", "kindLabel": "Trust, safety and privacy", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "When you cannot inspect every transaction, give participants a memory of each other.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Online Marketplaces", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-bazaar-without-walls/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:who-pays-for-a-message#0", "year": "1996–1997", "decisionMaker": "ICQ and AOL Instant Messenger", "decision": "Show everyone whether you are online (presence)", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "Every signal you expose about a user creates an expectation others will act on.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Communication Tools", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/who-pays-for-a-message/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:an-address-anyone-can-write-to#1", "year": "1996", "decisionMaker": "Hotmail", "decision": "Make email free, run it in the browser, and put an invitation at the foot of every message", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Build the invitation into the core action, so that using the product spreads it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Email", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/an-address-anyone-can-write-to/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:ink-that-never-dries#1", "year": "1997", "decisionMaker": "Microsoft", "decision": "Add an animated Office Assistant that offered help when it guessed what you were doing", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": null, "lesson": "Proactive features must be right far more often than passive ones to be welcome.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Word Processors", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/ink-that-never-dries/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:the-auction-behind-the-answer#0", "year": "1998", "decisionMaker": "GoTo.com (later Overture)", "decision": "Sell the order of search results by open auction, with advertisers paying only when a user clicks", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Inventing the business model is not the same as owning the place where it is used.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Web Search", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-auction-behind-the-answer/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:the-auction-behind-the-answer#1", "year": "1998", "decisionMaker": "Google (Sergey Brin and Larry Page)", "decision": "Rank pages by the links pointing to them, and offer a plain search page rather than a portal", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Look for signals your users already produce honestly, and protect the core task from the clutter that business pressure adds around it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Web Search", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-auction-behind-the-answer/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:software-you-never-own#2", "year": "1998–2001", "decisionMaker": "Application service providers (USinternetworking, Corio and others)", "decision": "Host conventional client-server business software in their own data centres, one installation per customer, funded largely by debt", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "Moving an old product to a new channel rarely captures the economics of the new channel.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Subscription Software (SaaS)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/software-you-never-own/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:what-you-might-also-like#1", "year": "1998–2003", "decisionMaker": "Amazon", "decision": "Recommend products by relating items to items, computed in advance from purchase histories, rather than matching each customer to similar customers at the moment of the visit", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "The simplest algorithm that scales often beats the best one that does not.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Recommendation Feeds", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/what-you-might-also-like/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:the-gift-that-runs-the-world#2", "year": "1998", "decisionMaker": "Netscape", "decision": "Release the source code of its web browser, Communicator, under an open licence", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Opening a product can preserve its future even when it cannot save its owner.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Open Source Software", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-gift-that-runs-the-world/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:the-gift-that-runs-the-world#3", "year": "1998", "decisionMaker": "Open Source Initiative (Eric Raymond, Bruce Perens and others)", "decision": "Promote “open source” as a practical development method, dropping the moral language of “free software,” to win over business", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "How you name something decides who will listen, and what they will hear.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Open Source Software", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-gift-that-runs-the-world/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:machines-inside-machines#1", "year": "1998–1999", "decisionMaker": "VMware", "decision": "Virtualize x86 anyway, with binary translation, running on top of an existing operating system", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Solving a problem everyone thinks requires new hardware can build a company; plan for the day the hardware arrives.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Virtualization", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/machines-inside-machines/#decision-2" }, { "id": "memo:amazon-1997-letter-to-shareholders", "year": "1998", "decisionMaker": "Jeff Bezos", "decision": "Tell investors in advance that Amazon would sacrifice short-term profit for long-term market leadership, and how it would make that trade.", "kind": "organisation", "kindLabel": "Organisation and governance", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Write down your trade-offs before you need to defend them; it changes how later decisions are judged.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "Amazon’s 1997 Letter to Shareholders", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/amazon-1997-letter-to-shareholders/" }, { "id": "road:newton-and-general-magic#2", "year": "1998", "decisionMaker": "Apple", "decision": "Discontinue the Newton platform.", "kind": "focus-and-resources", "kindLabel": "Focus, exit and investment", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Ending a product can preserve the capability to return to its vision when the time is right.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Newton and General Magic", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/newton-and-general-magic/#decision-3" }, { "id": "road:iridium#1", "year": "1998", "decisionMaker": "Iridium LLC", "decision": "Launch commercial service with large handsets priced around $3,000 and calls costing several dollars a minute.", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "When the product cannot be changed, the market you choose to serve first decides whether it lives.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Iridium", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/iridium/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:the-library-in-the-air#0", "year": "1999–2001", "decisionMaker": "Napster", "decision": "Run a central index of the songs stored on users' computers, with the files themselves passing directly between users", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "An architecture is also a legal position. Where the system keeps knowledge and control, the law will look for responsibility.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Music and Video Streaming", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-library-in-the-air/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:software-you-never-own#1", "year": "1999", "decisionMaker": "Salesforce", "decision": "Deliver business software through the browser from a single shared (multi-tenant) system, priced per user per month, with no installation", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "A new delivery model can be a bigger advantage than better features, if it changes who can buy and how quickly.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Subscription Software (SaaS)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/software-you-never-own/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:the-company-inside-the-machine#3", "year": "1999", "decisionMaker": "Hershey Foods", "decision": "Switch on new ERP, customer relationship and supply chain systems together in July, shortly before the Halloween ordering season", "kind": "execution", "kindLabel": "Executing large change", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Poor", "lesson": "Schedule irreversible changes for when you can afford them to go wrong.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Enterprise Software (ERP)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-company-inside-the-machine/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:the-company-inside-the-machine#4", "year": "1999–2019", "decisionMaker": "Post Office Ltd (UK)", "decision": "Treat data from its Horizon accounting system as reliable evidence against sub-postmasters, prosecuting and pursuing them for shortfalls, despite reports of errors", "kind": "execution", "kindLabel": "Executing large change", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Poor", "lesson": "When a system and a person disagree, the system’s output is a claim to be checked, not a verdict.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Enterprise Software (ERP)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-company-inside-the-machine/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:the-gift-that-runs-the-world#4", "year": "1999–2003", "decisionMaker": "Red Hat", "decision": "Give away the software and sell subscriptions for certified, supported, long-maintained versions of Linux for enterprises", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "When the product is free, sell the certainty around it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Open Source Software", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-gift-that-runs-the-world/#decision-5" }, { "id": "road:itanium#1", "year": "1999–2003", "decisionMaker": "AMD", "decision": "Extend x86 to 64 bits with full backward compatibility, announced in 1999 and shipped as Opteron in 2003.", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "When the leader leaves its customers' existing investment behind, the follower can win by protecting it.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Itanium", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/itanium/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:the-library-in-the-air#1", "year": "2000–2001", "decisionMaker": "The major record labels", "decision": "Pursue Napster in court until it closed, rather than license it as a paid service, even after Bertelsmann broke ranks to back a membership version", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "industry", "positionLabel": "Industry-wide", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "When customers have shown what they want, suing the messenger protects rights but rarely the business.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Music and Video Streaming", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-library-in-the-air/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas#2", "year": "2000", "decisionMaker": "TSMC", "decision": "Decline IBM’s offer to share its 0.13-micron copper process and develop its own", "kind": "make-or-buy", "kindLabel": "Make, buy or partner", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "In a business that runs on learning, renting the knowledge can leave you permanently a step behind the owner.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Chip Foundries", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:the-blue-dot#3", "year": "2000", "decisionMaker": "The Clinton administration", "decision": "End Selective Availability and commit to a civilian GPS signal at full accuracy, free of charge", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "When a restriction has stopped working, removing it can be the most valuable thing an owner does.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "GPS and Digital Maps", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-blue-dot/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:paying-a-stranger#3", "year": "2000–2002", "decisionMaker": "PayPal", "decision": "Build its own fraud detection software and concentrate on payments between buyers and sellers on eBay", "kind": "trust-and-safety", "kindLabel": "Trust, safety and privacy", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "In payments, the capacity to manage fraud is the product.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Digital Payments", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/paying-a-stranger/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:the-auction-behind-the-answer#2", "year": "2000", "decisionMaker": "Yahoo!", "decision": "Use Google’s results to power Yahoo!’s web search, with Google credited on the page", "kind": "make-or-buy", "kindLabel": "Make, buy or partner", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Be careful about outsourcing the function your users come for, especially to a supplier whose brand appears on your page.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Web Search", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-auction-behind-the-answer/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:the-bazaar-without-walls#1", "year": "2000", "decisionMaker": "Amazon", "decision": "Open Amazon’s product pages to independent sellers, letting them compete directly with Amazon’s own retail offers", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Letting rivals sell to your customers can grow the whole market you control.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Online Marketplaces", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-bazaar-without-walls/#decision-2" }, { "id": "road:iridium#2", "year": "2000", "decisionMaker": "Investors in Iridium Satellite LLC", "decision": "Buy the satellite network out of bankruptcy at a tiny fraction of its cost and serve niche markets.", "kind": "acquisition", "kindLabel": "Acquisitions and sales", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "The same asset can be a disaster at one cost basis and a success at another.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Iridium", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/iridium/#decision-3" }, { "id": "road:semantic-web#0", "year": "2001", "decisionMaker": "Tim Berners-Lee and the W3C community", "decision": "Pursue a web of machine-readable meaning built on formal standards, shared ontologies and logic, intended to be adopted broadly by publishers.", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "A standard that asks many people to do work for a future benefit to someone else needs an immediate reward to spread.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "The Semantic Web", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/semantic-web/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:the-auction-behind-the-answer#3", "year": "2002", "decisionMaker": "Google (AdWords)", "decision": "Sell text ads by cost-per-click auction, rank them by bid multiplied by expected click-through rate, charge just above the next bidder, and keep them labelled and separate from the organic results", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "When you sell access to your users, make relevance to the user part of the price.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Web Search", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-auction-behind-the-answer/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:the-auction-behind-the-answer#5", "year": "2002–2021", "decisionMaker": "Google", "decision": "Pay browser and device makers to make Google the default search engine, under revenue-sharing contracts that in many cases excluded rivals", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "When you are dominant, paying to be the default is a different act from earning the choice, and courts will judge it as one.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Web Search", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-auction-behind-the-answer/#decision-6" }, { "id": "essay:an-address-anyone-can-write-to#3", "year": "2002–2024", "decisionMaker": "Mail providers", "decision": "Fight spam with learning filters and sender reputation rather than a price on sending", "kind": "trust-and-safety", "kindLabel": "Trust, safety and privacy", "position": "industry", "positionLabel": "Industry-wide", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "Every abuse defence is also a market structure. Ask who it advantages.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Email", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/an-address-anyone-can-write-to/#decision-4" }, { "id": "memo:trustworthy-computing", "year": "2002", "decisionMaker": "Bill Gates", "decision": "Make security, availability and privacy Microsoft’s highest priority, and choose security over new features whenever they conflict.", "kind": "trust-and-safety", "kindLabel": "Trust, safety and privacy", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "When a quality problem threatens trust in the whole product, a feature-by-feature fix is not enough; change the priority order explicitly.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "Trustworthy Computing", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/trustworthy-computing/" }, { "id": "essay:the-library-in-the-air#2", "year": "2003", "decisionMaker": "Apple", "decision": "Sell songs one at a time for 99 cents, with the copy protection the labels required, through its own software and player", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Make the legal path easier than the illegal one, and the price question becomes secondary.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Music and Video Streaming", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-library-in-the-air/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas#3", "year": "2003", "decisionMaker": "TSMC", "decision": "Back 193-nanometre immersion lithography, which images chips through a thin layer of water, and cancel orders for tools using 157-nanometre light", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "The incremental path that works often beats the official roadmap that needs everything to go right.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Chip Foundries", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:the-auction-behind-the-answer#4", "year": "2003", "decisionMaker": "Google (AdSense)", "decision": "Extend the ad auction to other people’s websites, sharing revenue with publishers", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When you pay the producers whose work you also rank, expect them to produce for your payments.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Web Search", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-auction-behind-the-answer/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:the-bazaar-without-walls#2", "year": "2003–2006", "decisionMaker": "eBay (China)", "decision": "Run its Chinese business, EachNet, on eBay’s global platform and fee model, against a local rival that charged sellers nothing", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "A marketplace that works in one country may need different trust mechanisms, not just translation, in another.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Online Marketplaces", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-bazaar-without-walls/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:the-bazaar-without-walls#3", "year": "2003–2004", "decisionMaker": "Alibaba (Taobao and Alipay)", "decision": "Charge sellers nothing to list, hold buyers’ payments in escrow until goods arrived, and let buyers chat with sellers", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Solve the trust problem your customers actually have, not the one your competitor solved elsewhere.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Online Marketplaces", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-bazaar-without-walls/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:machines-inside-machines#2", "year": "2003", "decisionMaker": "Xen (University of Cambridge)", "decision": "Ask the guest operating system to cooperate with the hypervisor (paravirtualization)", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "Telling users the truth about the system can let them make better decisions than a perfect illusion.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Virtualization", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/machines-inside-machines/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:the-universal-machine-and-the-end-of-the-free-lunch#2", "year": "2003–2005", "decisionMaker": "Chip makers", "decision": "Respond to the end of Dennard scaling with multiple cores", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "industry", "positionLabel": "Industry-wide", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "When a free improvement ends, someone inherits its cost. Plan who that will be.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Compute", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-universal-machine-and-the-end-of-the-free-lunch/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont#2", "year": "2003–2006", "decisionMaker": "Friendster", "decision": "Decline Google’s offer and keep growing while the site slowed and fake profiles were deleted", "kind": "acquisition", "kindLabel": "Acquisitions and sales", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": null, "lesson": "Never let the experience decay during your fastest growth; and do not go to war with your earliest users’ culture.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Social Media", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:software-you-never-own#3", "year": "2004–2006", "decisionMaker": "Oracle", "decision": "Consolidate the market for installed enterprise applications by acquiring PeopleSoft and Siebel", "kind": "acquisition", "kindLabel": "Acquisitions and sales", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Consolidating a market at its peak can fund the future, but it can also hand that future to the people you displaced.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Subscription Software (SaaS)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/software-you-never-own/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:the-company-inside-the-machine#5", "year": "2004–2012", "decisionMaker": "US Air Force (ECSS)", "decision": "Replace hundreds of legacy logistics systems with a single commercial ERP-based system while also changing its logistics processes", "kind": "execution", "kindLabel": "Executing large change", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "The larger the transformation, the more it must be broken into pieces that can succeed or fail on their own.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Enterprise Software (ERP)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-company-inside-the-machine/#decision-6" }, { "id": "essay:where-should-the-program-run#1", "year": "2004–2005", "decisionMaker": "Rails and Django", "decision": "Make the routine decisions once, for everyone (“convention over configuration”)", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Identify the decisions that do not deserve your users’ attention, and make them for them.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Web Frameworks", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/where-should-the-program-run/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:an-address-anyone-can-write-to#2", "year": "2004", "decisionMaker": "Google (Gmail)", "decision": "Offer a gigabyte of storage, replace folders with search, and pay for it by scanning mail to choose ads", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Compete on the dimension where your costs are structurally lower than everyone else’s.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Email", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/an-address-anyone-can-write-to/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont#0", "year": "2004–2006", "decisionMaker": "Facebook", "decision": "Require real names and college email addresses, and open one campus at a time", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Launch where you can reach density quickly, and grow only as fast as the product can stay reliable.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Social Media", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont/#decision-1" }, { "id": "memo:google-founders-ipo-letter", "year": "2004", "decisionMaker": "Larry Page and Sergey Brin", "decision": "Go public on Google’s own terms: a dual-class share structure that kept control with the founders, no traditional earnings guidance, an auction-based offering and an explicit commitment to long-term, high-risk projects.", "kind": "organisation", "kindLabel": "Organisation and governance", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Set expectations publicly before the pressure arrives; a letter written at the IPO governs how later decisions are judged.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "An Owner’s Manual for Google’s Shareholders", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/google-founders-ipo-letter/" }, { "id": "road:itanium#2", "year": "2004–2020", "decisionMaker": "Intel", "decision": "Adopt 64-bit x86 for mainstream products while continuing Itanium for high-end servers.", "kind": "focus-and-resources", "kindLabel": "Focus, exit and investment", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Changing course quickly in the market and honouring commitments to existing customers can both be right at once.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Itanium", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/itanium/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:the-library-in-the-air#3", "year": "2005–2007", "decisionMaker": "YouTube (Google from 2006)", "decision": "Let anyone upload video and remove infringing material only on notice, then build a system that matched uploads to owners' works and let owners block them or take a share of the advertising", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Permissive growth can be made durable if a way to share the gains with the people harmed arrives before the courts do.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Music and Video Streaming", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-library-in-the-air/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:the-blue-dot#4", "year": "2005", "decisionMaker": "Google", "decision": "Launch a free web map that users could drag, zoom and search in the browser, funded by advertising, and let outside developers build on it", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Giving away a costly layer can win the market for everything built on top of it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "GPS and Digital Maps", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-blue-dot/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:software-you-never-own#4", "year": "2005", "decisionMaker": "Workday (Dave Duffield and Aneel Bhusri)", "decision": "Build human resources and finance software for large enterprises from scratch as a shared online service", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Credibility with conservative customers can be the scarcest resource in a platform shift.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Subscription Software (SaaS)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/software-you-never-own/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:the-bazaar-without-walls#4", "year": "2006", "decisionMaker": "Amazon (Fulfillment by Amazon)", "decision": "Store, pack and ship goods for independent sellers, and make those goods eligible for Prime delivery", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "The infrastructure that makes strangers trustworthy can also make them dependent.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Online Marketplaces", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-bazaar-without-walls/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:what-you-might-also-like#2", "year": "2006–2010", "decisionMaker": "Netflix", "decision": "Release anonymised viewing data and offer $1 million to anyone who could improve its rating predictions by 10 percent", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Optimise for the decision the business will face when the work is done, not the one it faces now.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Recommendation Feeds", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/what-you-might-also-like/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-for-asking-what-if#7", "year": "2006", "decisionMaker": "Google (Spreadsheets, later Sheets)", "decision": "Offer a free spreadsheet in the browser, built for sharing and simultaneous editing", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Against a dominant product, compete on the dimension it was not built for.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Spreadsheets", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-for-asking-what-if/#decision-8" }, { "id": "essay:ink-that-never-dries#2", "year": "2006", "decisionMaker": "Google (Docs)", "decision": "Move the document into the browser with simultaneous editing", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Sometimes the product is not a better tool but a different place where the work happens.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Word Processors", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/ink-that-never-dries/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:who-pays-for-a-message#1", "year": "2006", "decisionMaker": "Google (Docs)", "decision": "Make the shared document the meeting place", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Moving communication into the shared object can reduce messages rather than speeding them up.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Communication Tools", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/who-pays-for-a-message/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:the-universal-machine-and-the-end-of-the-free-lunch#3", "year": "2006", "decisionMaker": "Amazon", "decision": "Rent computing capacity by the hour", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "If your internal capability is far better than what customers can build, consider selling it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Compute", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-universal-machine-and-the-end-of-the-free-lunch/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:the-universal-machine-and-the-end-of-the-free-lunch#4", "year": "2006–2017", "decisionMaker": "NVIDIA and Google", "decision": "Open graphics chips to general computation (CUDA), then design chips only for neural networks (TPU)", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Make your product programmable; your users may find a bigger market than you designed for.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Compute", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-universal-machine-and-the-end-of-the-free-lunch/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont#1", "year": "2006", "decisionMaker": "Facebook", "decision": "Turn profiles into News Feed, a continuous stream of friends’ activity", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "When a feature exposes users more, ship the controls with it, not after the protest.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Social Media", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont/#decision-2" }, { "id": "memo:tesla-master-plan", "year": "2006", "decisionMaker": "Elon Musk", "decision": "Start with an expensive, low-volume sports car and use the money to fund progressively cheaper, higher-volume cars.", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "When a technology is too expensive for the mass market, start where customers will pay a premium and use the margins to move down.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/tesla-master-plan/" }, { "id": "essay:the-library-in-the-air#4", "year": "2007", "decisionMaker": "Netflix", "decision": "Add streaming free to its DVD-by-mail subscriptions instead of selling it as a separate service", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "The safest way to replace your own business is to let your customers try the replacement for free.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Music and Video Streaming", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-library-in-the-air/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:the-blue-dot#5", "year": "2007–2008", "decisionMaker": "Nokia", "decision": "Buy the digital map maker Navteq for about $8.1 billion", "kind": "acquisition", "kindLabel": "Acquisitions and sales", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Paying a premium for a scarce asset is dangerous when a richer rival can make it abundant.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "GPS and Digital Maps", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-blue-dot/#decision-6" }, { "id": "essay:paying-a-stranger#4", "year": "2007", "decisionMaker": "Safaricom and Vodafone (M-Pesa)", "decision": "Launch mobile money for people without bank accounts, using a network of shopkeepers as agents to convert cash into electronic value", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Infrastructure for the excluded can be built from what they already use.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Digital Payments", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/paying-a-stranger/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:the-walled-garden#0", "year": "2007–2008", "decisionMaker": "Apple", "decision": "Open the iPhone to outside developers only through an App Store in which Apple reviews every app, distributes it and takes 30 percent of paid sales", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Safety and simplicity can open a market, but whoever controls the gate will eventually be judged on how they use it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "App Stores and Platforms", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-walled-garden/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:the-walled-garden#2", "year": "2007–2015", "decisionMaker": "Facebook (Platform)", "decision": "Open the social network to outside apps with broad access to users’ data and their friends’ data, then progressively restrict it", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "Developers who build on your platform are betting on your future rules. Generosity you cannot sustain is a debt.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "App Stores and Platforms", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-walled-garden/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:the-gift-that-runs-the-world#5", "year": "2007–2008", "decisionMaker": "Google (Android)", "decision": "Release the Android operating system as open source, while keeping its app store and key services proprietary and licensed to phone makers", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Giving away the layer you do not need to own can secure the layer you do.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Open Source Software", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-gift-that-runs-the-world/#decision-6" }, { "id": "essay:the-number-that-became-a-person#3", "year": "2007", "decisionMaker": "Apple (iPhone)", "decision": "Remove the keyboard and buttons and make the whole front a touchscreen", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Replacing fixed hardware with software can make a device general; check which of your fixed features users would trade for flexibility.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Mobile Phones", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-number-that-became-a-person/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:the-number-that-became-a-person#4", "year": "2007–2008", "decisionMaker": "Apple", "decision": "Allow only web apps at first, then reverse course and open a native App Store", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Being willing to reverse a public decision quickly can matter more than getting it right first.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Mobile Phones", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-number-that-became-a-person/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:the-number-that-became-a-person#5", "year": "2007–2008", "decisionMaker": "Google (Android)", "decision": "License the operating system to many manufacturers", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "If your goal is reach, let others build on your platform at prices you could never hit yourself.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Mobile Phones", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-number-that-became-a-person/#decision-6" }, { "id": "essay:who-has-to-know-where-the-data-lives#4", "year": "2007", "decisionMaker": "Amazon (Dynamo)", "decision": "Choose availability over consistency: an always-writeable store", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "State your trade-off explicitly, and limit it to the problem it was made for.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Databases", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/who-has-to-know-where-the-data-lives/#decision-5" }, { "id": "memo:thoughts-on-music", "year": "2007", "decisionMaker": "Steve Jobs", "decision": "Call publicly on the major record labels to abolish copy protection (DRM) on music sold online, rather than opening Apple’s own DRM to competitors.", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "When you are pressured to change something another party requires, it can be more effective to propose removing the requirement than to defend it.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "Thoughts on Music", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/thoughts-on-music/" }, { "id": "essay:the-library-in-the-air#5", "year": "2008", "decisionMaker": "Spotify", "decision": "License the major labels' catalogues for a free, advertising-supported tier as well as a paid one, granting the labels equity and advance payments in return", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When a few suppliers control what you cannot do without, the terms of their consent become your business model.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Music and Video Streaming", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-library-in-the-air/#decision-6" }, { "id": "essay:the-blue-dot#6", "year": "2008–2009", "decisionMaker": "Google", "decision": "Build its own base map with Street View cars and human editors, and offer free voice-guided navigation on Android", "kind": "make-or-buy", "kindLabel": "Make, buy or partner", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "A product sold by others can become a free feature in the hands of a company that profits elsewhere.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "GPS and Digital Maps", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-blue-dot/#decision-7" }, { "id": "essay:the-auction-behind-the-answer#6", "year": "2008–2017", "decisionMaker": "Google", "decision": "Show its own shopping comparison service prominently in results while rival comparison sites appeared as ordinary links lower down", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "When your ranking is the market, your own products cannot compete in it on unequal terms.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Web Search", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-auction-behind-the-answer/#decision-7" }, { "id": "essay:the-walled-garden#1", "year": "2008", "decisionMaker": "Google (Android)", "decision": "Allow Android users to install apps from sources other than Google’s own store", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Openness on paper is not openness in practice if the defaults and contracts point one way.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "App Stores and Platforms", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-walled-garden/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:notes-that-talk-back#1", "year": "2008", "decisionMaker": "Evernote", "decision": "Promise to “remember everything”: capture anything, find it anywhere", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "Ask whether your core metric (items saved) measures the outcome users actually want.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Note-Taking Apps", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/notes-that-talk-back/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas#4", "year": "2009", "decisionMaker": "TSMC", "decision": "In the depth of the financial crisis, take back workers who had been laid off and raise capital spending sharply", "kind": "focus-and-resources", "kindLabel": "Focus, exit and investment", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "In a cyclical industry, the decisions that decide the next upturn are made in the downturn.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Chip Foundries", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:who-has-to-know-where-the-data-lives#5", "year": "2009–2021", "decisionMaker": "The NoSQL movement", "decision": "Drop SQL, joins and schemas for scale and flexibility", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "industry", "positionLabel": "Industry-wide", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "Before abandoning a standard, ask whether the standard can absorb the fix.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Databases", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/who-has-to-know-where-the-data-lives/#decision-6" }, { "id": "memo:netflix-culture-deck", "year": "2009", "decisionMaker": "Reed Hastings, with Patty McCord", "decision": "Replace most rules and processes with high talent density, candour and context, and let people go who are merely adequate.", "kind": "organisation", "kindLabel": "Organisation and governance", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "Culture documents work when they describe decisions (who is hired, rewarded and let go), not when they list virtues.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "“Freedom & Responsibility,” the Netflix Culture Deck", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/netflix-culture-deck/" }, { "id": "road:google-wave#0", "year": "2009", "decisionMaker": "Google", "decision": "Launch Wave as a broad new category meant to unify email, chat and documents, with an invitation-only preview.", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "A tool whose value depends on others must launch in a way that brings the others along.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Google Wave", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/google-wave/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:the-blue-dot#8", "year": "2010s", "decisionMaker": "Mobile app developers and location data brokers", "decision": "Collect precise location from phones through apps and advertising code, and sell or share it", "kind": "trust-and-safety", "kindLabel": "Trust, safety and privacy", "position": "industry", "positionLabel": "Industry-wide", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Poor", "lesson": "Data that shows where a person has been shows who they are, and should be collected as if that were the case.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "GPS and Digital Maps", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-blue-dot/#decision-9" }, { "id": "essay:paying-a-stranger#5", "year": "2010", "decisionMaker": "Stripe", "decision": "Sell online payments to software developers, through a simple programming interface that hid banks, card networks and compliance", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Abstracting a complex system into a simple interface can change who makes the buying decision.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Digital Payments", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/paying-a-stranger/#decision-6" }, { "id": "essay:the-bazaar-without-walls#5", "year": "c. 2010", "decisionMaker": "Flipkart", "decision": "Let customers pay in cash when goods were delivered", "kind": "trust-and-safety", "kindLabel": "Trust, safety and privacy", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "To win a sceptical customer, take on the risk they will not.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Online Marketplaces", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-bazaar-without-walls/#decision-6" }, { "id": "essay:the-bazaar-without-walls#7", "year": "2010s", "decisionMaker": "Amazon", "decision": "Sell its own products in competition with marketplace sellers while holding their sales data and controlling which offer wins the Buy Box", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "If you run the market, the rules you apply to yourself are the ones others will judge you by.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Online Marketplaces", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-bazaar-without-walls/#decision-8" }, { "id": "essay:where-should-the-program-run#3", "year": "2010s", "decisionMaker": "The web industry", "decision": "Build sites as single-page JavaScript applications", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "industry", "positionLabel": "Industry-wide", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "Measure the cost of your choices on your users’ worst devices, not your own.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Web Frameworks", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/where-should-the-program-run/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:who-pays-for-a-message#3", "year": "2010s–2020s", "decisionMaker": "Collaboration tools", "decision": "Give receivers control: threads, do-not-disturb, scheduled send, status messages", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "industry", "positionLabel": "Industry-wide", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "Design for the receiver as carefully as for the sender.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Communication Tools", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/who-pays-for-a-message/#decision-4" }, { "id": "memo:thoughts-on-flash", "year": "2010", "decisionMaker": "Steve Jobs", "decision": "Keep Adobe Flash off the iPhone and iPad for good, and explain the decision publicly as a choice for open web standards, battery life, reliability and touch.", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "When you say no to something customers ask for, explain the reasons in the customer’s terms (battery, crashes, touch), not only in strategic terms.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "Thoughts on Flash", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/thoughts-on-flash/" }, { "id": "road:google-wave#1", "year": "2010", "decisionMaker": "Google", "decision": "Stop developing Wave as a standalone product about fifteen months after its unveiling, and carry its technology into other products.", "kind": "focus-and-resources", "kindLabel": "Focus, exit and investment", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Killing a product fast can be right, but the way it is ended shapes how people trust the next one.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "Google Wave", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/google-wave/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:the-library-in-the-air#6", "year": "2011–2013", "decisionMaker": "Netflix", "decision": "Commission original series without pilots and release whole seasons at once", "kind": "make-or-buy", "kindLabel": "Make, buy or partner", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When your suppliers become your rivals, owning what you sell is the defence, and it changes what you sell.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Music and Video Streaming", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-library-in-the-air/#decision-7" }, { "id": "essay:the-auction-behind-the-answer#7", "year": "2011", "decisionMaker": "Google (Panda update)", "decision": "Change the ranking to demote large volumes of thin, low-quality pages, even though many of them displayed Google ads", "kind": "trust-and-safety", "kindLabel": "Trust, safety and privacy", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "A ranking that can be gamed must be defended continuously, and sometimes against your own revenue.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Web Search", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-auction-behind-the-answer/#decision-8" }, { "id": "essay:the-walled-garden#3", "year": "2011", "decisionMaker": "Apple", "decision": "Require apps selling digital goods and subscriptions to use Apple’s in-app purchase system, at its commission, and bar them from telling users about cheaper options elsewhere", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "Rules that work only if customers do not know their options are vulnerable to anyone who tells them.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "App Stores and Platforms", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-walled-garden/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:software-you-never-own#5", "year": "2011–2013", "decisionMaker": "Adobe", "decision": "Stop selling boxed Creative Suite licences and move all customers to monthly or annual Creative Cloud subscriptions", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "A business-model transition needs new measures of progress, explained before the old measures fall.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Subscription Software (SaaS)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/software-you-never-own/#decision-6" }, { "id": "essay:software-you-never-own#6", "year": "2011–2017", "decisionMaker": "Microsoft", "decision": "Sell Office as a subscription while continuing to offer perpetual versions", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When customers depend on you, letting them move at their own pace can be worth more than moving them at yours.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Subscription Software (SaaS)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/software-you-never-own/#decision-7" }, { "id": "essay:the-company-inside-the-machine#6", "year": "2011–2018", "decisionMaker": "Lidl", "decision": "Adopt a standard SAP retail system while keeping its own long-standing practice of valuing inventory at purchase prices, which required extensive customisation", "kind": "execution", "kindLabel": "Executing large change", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "Decide early whether you will adapt to the software or the software to you; trying to do both is the most expensive choice.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Enterprise Software (ERP)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-company-inside-the-machine/#decision-7" }, { "id": "essay:the-bazaar-without-walls#6", "year": "2011", "decisionMaker": "Airbnb", "decision": "Apologise publicly and guarantee hosts up to $50,000 for damage caused by guests, after a host’s home was ransacked", "kind": "trust-and-safety", "kindLabel": "Trust, safety and privacy", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When your marketplace asks people to trust strangers, you will eventually have to insure that trust.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Online Marketplaces", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-bazaar-without-walls/#decision-7" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-that-answers#8", "year": "2011–2016", "decisionMaker": "IBM (Watson)", "decision": "Turn a quiz-show demonstration into a business unit aimed at cancer care and other high-stakes fields", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "A general capability does not become a solution until it fits the data, workflow and accountability of a specific job.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Large Language Models", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-that-answers/#decision-9" }, { "id": "essay:everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont#7", "year": "2011–2019", "decisionMaker": "Google (Google+)", "decision": "Build a social network on top of everyone’s Google account", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": null, "lesson": "Do not confuse distribution with demand: count what people do, not how many accounts exist.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Social Media", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont/#decision-8" }, { "id": "memo:burning-platform", "year": "2011", "decisionMaker": "Stephen Elop", "decision": "Prepare Nokia’s employees to abandon its own smartphone platforms, an announcement that came days later as a partnership to build phones on Microsoft’s Windows Phone.", "kind": "make-or-buy", "kindLabel": "Make, buy or partner", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": null, "lesson": "A memo that tells everyone the current product is doomed will reach customers and retailers, not only employees; plan for that audience.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "The “Burning Platform” Memo", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/burning-platform/" }, { "id": "memo:netflix-qwikster", "year": "2011", "decisionMaker": "Reed Hastings", "decision": "Split Netflix in two: keep streaming under the Netflix name and move DVD-by-mail to a separate service called Qwikster, with separate websites and accounts.", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": null, "lesson": "Do not make customers carry the cost of your internal reorganisation; two websites and two accounts were Netflix’s convenience, not theirs.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "An Explanation and Some Reflections (Qwikster)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/netflix-qwikster/" }, { "id": "memo:yegge-platforms-rant", "year": "2011", "decisionMaker": "Steve Yegge", "decision": "Argue that Google should treat every product as a platform, as Amazon did after Jeff Bezos required every team to expose its work through service interfaces.", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Products that expose clean interfaces can become platforms; products that do not stay products.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "Stevey’s Google Platforms Rant", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/yegge-platforms-rant/" }, { "id": "road:semantic-web#1", "year": "2011", "decisionMaker": "Google, Microsoft (Bing) and Yahoo", "decision": "Launch schema.org, a shared, simple vocabulary for structured data, rewarded by richer appearance in search results.", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Adoption follows incentives more reliably than it follows elegance.", "source": "Road not taken", "subject": "The Semantic Web", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/roads-not-taken/semantic-web/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas#5", "year": "2012", "decisionMaker": "TSMC", "decision": "Invest €838 million for a 5 percent stake in ASML and commit €276 million to its research on extreme ultraviolet lithography", "kind": "make-or-buy", "kindLabel": "Make, buy or partner", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When everyone depends on one supplier’s breakthrough, the customers who fund it get it first.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Chip Foundries", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas/#decision-6" }, { "id": "essay:the-blue-dot#7", "year": "2012", "decisionMaker": "Apple", "decision": "Replace Google's maps on the iPhone with its own, assembled from licensed data, in iOS 6", "kind": "make-or-buy", "kindLabel": "Make, buy or partner", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "Some products can be shipped and fixed; a map has to be right on the first day someone relies on it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "GPS and Digital Maps", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-blue-dot/#decision-8" }, { "id": "essay:what-you-might-also-like#3", "year": "2012", "decisionMaker": "YouTube", "decision": "Rank and recommend videos by expected watch time rather than clicks or views", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Every improvement in a proxy metric creates a new way for the system to diverge from what people actually value.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Recommendation Feeds", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/what-you-might-also-like/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-for-asking-what-if#8", "year": "2012", "decisionMaker": "JPMorgan Chase (Chief Investment Office)", "decision": "Run a new value-at-risk model for a large derivatives portfolio on manually maintained spreadsheets", "kind": "execution", "kindLabel": "Executing large change", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Poor", "lesson": "When a spreadsheet becomes a system, it must be governed like one.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Spreadsheets", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-for-asking-what-if/#decision-9" }, { "id": "essay:every-programming-language-is-a-theory-of-the-programmer#4", "year": "2012", "decisionMaker": "Microsoft (TypeScript)", "decision": "Add optional types on top of JavaScript instead of replacing it", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Improve the standard from inside rather than asking people to leave it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Programming Languages", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/every-programming-language-is-a-theory-of-the-programmer/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont#3", "year": "2012–2014", "decisionMaker": "Facebook", "decision": "Buy Instagram and WhatsApp while they were young", "kind": "acquisition", "kindLabel": "Acquisitions and sales", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Buy the format your users are moving toward before it is obvious, and expect regulators to ask why later.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Social Media", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont/#decision-4" }, { "id": "memo:facebook-hacker-way", "year": "2012", "decisionMaker": "Mark Zuckerberg", "decision": "Tell public investors that Facebook’s mission came before profit and that it would keep a culture of rapid, iterative building, which Zuckerberg called the Hacker Way.", "kind": "organisation", "kindLabel": "Organisation and governance", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "A culture optimised for speed needs explicit limits for decisions whose consequences cannot be undone.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "The Hacker Way (Facebook’s IPO Letter)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/facebook-hacker-way/" }, { "id": "memo:zuckerberg-instagram-emails", "year": "2012", "decisionMaker": "Mark Zuckerberg and David Ebersman", "decision": "Buy young social apps, Instagram above all, before they could grow into threats to Facebook.", "kind": "acquisition", "kindLabel": "Acquisitions and sales", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Write down why you are making an acquisition before you make it; the reasons will be examined later, by your board and possibly by regulators.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "The Instagram Acquisition Emails", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/zuckerberg-instagram-emails/" }, { "id": "essay:a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas#6", "year": "2013–2019", "decisionMaker": "Intel", "decision": "Aim its 10-nanometre process at an unusually large increase in density, 2.7 times its 14-nanometre process, without extreme ultraviolet lithography", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "A leader’s confidence in its own track record is the hardest risk to see from inside.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Chip Foundries", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas/#decision-7" }, { "id": "essay:software-you-never-own#7", "year": "2013–2024", "decisionMaker": "Adobe", "decision": "Default many customers to an “annual, paid monthly” plan that charged a large fee for cancelling in the first year", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "If customers stay because leaving is hard, the retention number is measuring the trap.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Subscription Software (SaaS)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/software-you-never-own/#decision-8" }, { "id": "essay:machines-inside-machines#3", "year": "2013", "decisionMaker": "dotCloud (Docker)", "decision": "Package applications as portable images rather than inventing new isolation", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Often the winning product is the usable wrapper around capabilities that already exist.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Virtualization", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/machines-inside-machines/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:where-should-the-program-run#2", "year": "2013", "decisionMaker": "Facebook (React)", "decision": "Describe the interface as a function of state and let the library work out the changes", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Declarative interfaces win when the system can handle the how reliably.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Web Frameworks", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/where-should-the-program-run/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:who-pays-for-a-message#2", "year": "2013", "decisionMaker": "Slack", "decision": "Sell “a reduction in information overload” through open, searchable channels", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "If your product makes sending cheaper, measure the cost to receivers, not only the reduction in email.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Communication Tools", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/who-pays-for-a-message/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:an-address-anyone-can-write-to#4", "year": "2013–2016", "decisionMaker": "Dropbox (Mailbox)", "decision": "Buy a hit email app built on top of Gmail, then close it", "kind": "acquisition", "kindLabel": "Acquisitions and sales", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": null, "lesson": "If your product runs on someone else’s platform, ask what stops the platform copying you, before you raise money or sell.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Email", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/an-address-anyone-can-write-to/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont#6", "year": "2013–2016", "decisionMaker": "Twitter (Vine)", "decision": "Run a creator-driven video app without giving creators a way to earn", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": null, "lesson": "In a creator product, pay the people who make the content or expect them to leave.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Social Media", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont/#decision-7" }, { "id": "essay:notes-that-talk-back#2", "year": "2013–2018", "decisionMaker": "Notion", "decision": "Rebuild the product four times around blocks that can become databases", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "If users build their own tools with your product, you have a platform, not an app.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Note-Taking Apps", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/notes-that-talk-back/#decision-3" }, { "id": "memo:we-dont-sell-saddles-here", "year": "2013", "decisionMaker": "Stewart Butterfield", "decision": "Position a group chat tool as organisational transformation, and make the team’s job selling that change rather than features.", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "Customers rarely shop for a new category; describe the change in their work, not the tool.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "We Don’t Sell Saddles Here", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/we-dont-sell-saddles-here/" }, { "id": "essay:an-address-anyone-can-write-to#5", "year": "2014–2019", "decisionMaker": "Google (Inbox)", "decision": "Launch a separate experimental email app, then close it and move its best ideas into Gmail", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "If something is an experiment, say so, and plan the exit before people depend on it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Email", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/an-address-anyone-can-write-to/#decision-6" }, { "id": "memo:bold-ambition-and-our-core", "year": "2014", "decisionMaker": "Satya Nadella", "decision": "Redefine Microsoft as “the productivity and platform company for the mobile-first and cloud-first world,” moving the company’s centre of gravity away from Windows and devices.", "kind": "focus-and-resources", "kindLabel": "Focus, exit and investment", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Changing a company’s self-definition can matter more than any single product decision, because it changes which decisions feel natural.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "Bold Ambition and Our Core", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/bold-ambition-and-our-core/" }, { "id": "essay:the-company-inside-the-machine#7", "year": "2015–2027", "decisionMaker": "SAP", "decision": "Replace its older ERP with S/4HANA and set a date for ending mainstream support of the old system, pushing customers to migrate, increasingly to SAP’s cloud", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Too early", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When a vendor sets your deadline, plan as if it will not move, and negotiate as if it might.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Enterprise Software (ERP)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-company-inside-the-machine/#decision-8" }, { "id": "essay:paying-a-stranger#6", "year": "2016", "decisionMaker": "National Payments Corporation of India and the Reserve Bank of India (UPI)", "decision": "Build an instant payment system owned by a not-for-profit company of banks, open to any bank and to third-party apps, using simple addresses instead of account numbers", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "Build the rail as a commons and let competition happen on the trains.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Digital Payments", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/paying-a-stranger/#decision-7" }, { "id": "essay:paying-a-stranger#7", "year": "2016", "decisionMaker": "Government of India", "decision": "Withdraw ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes as legal tender with four hours’ notice", "kind": "regulation", "kindLabel": "Public rules", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "Shock policies change behaviour, but the costs fall on those with the fewest alternatives.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Digital Payments", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/paying-a-stranger/#decision-8" }, { "id": "essay:what-you-might-also-like#4", "year": "2016", "decisionMaker": "ByteDance (Douyin and TikTok)", "decision": "Build a video app around a feed chosen entirely by algorithm from all content, rather than from accounts the user follows", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Strong", "lesson": "A product that works for a new user on the first day can outgrow one that needs the user to build something first.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Recommendation Feeds", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/what-you-might-also-like/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont#4", "year": "2016", "decisionMaker": "Instagram", "decision": "Copy Snapchat’s Stories format openly", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Novelty is not a moat. If your advantage is a format, assume a larger competitor will ship it within a year.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Social Media", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont#5", "year": "2016–2018", "decisionMaker": "ByteDance (TikTok)", "decision": "Choose every video with a recommendation model instead of from the people you follow", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Ask whether the moat everyone believes in is really what users value, or only what incumbents have.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Social Media", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont/#decision-6" }, { "id": "memo:one-way-and-two-way-doors", "year": "2016", "decisionMaker": "Jeff Bezos", "decision": "Use different decision-making processes for irreversible and reversible decisions, and fight the tendency of large organisations to treat every decision as irreversible.", "kind": "organisation", "kindLabel": "Organisation and governance", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Before choosing a process, ask how reversible the decision is; speed is appropriate where mistakes are cheap to undo.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "One-Way and Two-Way Doors (Amazon’s 2015 Letter)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/one-way-and-two-way-doors/" }, { "id": "essay:the-library-in-the-air#7", "year": "2017–2019", "decisionMaker": "Disney", "decision": "End its Netflix distribution deal, keep its films for its own service and launch Disney+ at a low price", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "A supplier that becomes a rival must decide which business it is in, and pay for the answer in both.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Music and Video Streaming", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-library-in-the-air/#decision-8" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-that-answers#0", "year": "2017", "decisionMaker": "Google (research)", "decision": "Publish the Transformer architecture openly, in keeping with academic norms", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Publishing a breakthrough is a strategic choice; if you share the idea, your advantage has to come from how fast you turn it into a product.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Large Language Models", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-that-answers/#decision-1" }, { "id": "essay:a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas#7", "year": "2018", "decisionMaker": "GlobalFoundries", "decision": "Halt development of 7-nanometre and more advanced processes and concentrate on established ones", "kind": "focus-and-resources", "kindLabel": "Focus, exit and investment", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "In a scale business, the decision to stop is often forced by the customers who left first.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Chip Foundries", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas/#decision-8" }, { "id": "essay:the-gift-that-runs-the-world#6", "year": "2018", "decisionMaker": "Microsoft", "decision": "Buy GitHub, the main home of open-source development, for $7.5 billion", "kind": "acquisition", "kindLabel": "Acquisitions and sales", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Incumbents can join a movement they opposed, if they change their behaviour before their branding.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Open Source Software", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-gift-that-runs-the-world/#decision-7" }, { "id": "essay:the-gift-that-runs-the-world#7", "year": "2018–2024", "decisionMaker": "Open-source infrastructure companies (Elastic, HashiCorp, Redis and others)", "decision": "Change licences from open source to source-available terms that prevent cloud providers from offering the software as a service", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "industry", "positionLabel": "Industry-wide", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "In a commons, the right to fork is the community’s veto, and changing the rules invites its use.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Open Source Software", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-gift-that-runs-the-world/#decision-8" }, { "id": "essay:machines-inside-machines#4", "year": "2018", "decisionMaker": "Amazon (Firecracker)", "decision": "Strip a virtual machine monitor down to the minimum so that microVMs start like processes", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "When a trade-off is unacceptable to your customers, question whether it is real.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Virtualization", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/machines-inside-machines/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont#8", "year": "2018", "decisionMaker": "Facebook", "decision": "Re-rank the feed for “meaningful social interactions”", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": null, "lesson": "Before you optimise a proxy, ask what the worst content that scores well on it would be.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Social Media", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/everyone-you-know-and-everyone-you-dont/#decision-9" }, { "id": "essay:what-you-might-also-like#5", "year": "2019", "decisionMaker": "YouTube", "decision": "Reduce recommendations of “borderline” videos that came close to violating its rules, without removing them", "kind": "trust-and-safety", "kindLabel": "Trust, safety and privacy", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "What a system chooses to amplify is a decision distinct from what it allows, and should be governed as one.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Recommendation Feeds", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/what-you-might-also-like/#decision-6" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-that-answers#1", "year": "2019", "decisionMaker": "OpenAI", "decision": "Withhold the full GPT-2 model over misuse concerns and release it in stages", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When a risk is new and hard to measure, a reversible, staged release buys information cheaply.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Large Language Models", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-that-answers/#decision-2" }, { "id": "essay:where-should-the-program-run#4", "year": "2019–2021", "decisionMaker": "Etsy, Google and Astro", "decision": "Render pages on the server and hydrate only small “islands” of interactivity", "kind": "technology-bet", "kindLabel": "Technology bets", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "When the pendulum swings back, it lands somewhere new; look for what has changed since the last time.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Web Frameworks", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/where-should-the-program-run/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas#8", "year": "2020", "decisionMaker": "TSMC", "decision": "Build advanced fabs in Arizona, under pressure from the US government", "kind": "focus-and-resources", "kindLabel": "Focus, exit and investment", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Too early", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When a supplier becomes a matter of national security, the location of its factories becomes part of the product.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Chip Foundries", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/a-factory-for-other-peoples-ideas/#decision-9" }, { "id": "essay:paying-a-stranger#8", "year": "2020", "decisionMaker": "Government of India", "decision": "Set the merchant discount rate on UPI and RuPay debit payments to zero by law", "kind": "regulation", "kindLabel": "Public rules", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Free to the user is never free; decide deliberately who pays, or the market will decide for you.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Digital Payments", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/paying-a-stranger/#decision-9" }, { "id": "essay:the-walled-garden#4", "year": "2020", "decisionMaker": "Epic Games", "decision": "Deliberately break Apple’s and Google’s payment rules in Fortnite, invite its removal from both stores and sue both companies", "kind": "distribution", "kindLabel": "Distribution and positioning", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Challenging a platform’s rules may require a challenger large enough to survive the platform’s response.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "App Stores and Platforms", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-walled-garden/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-for-asking-what-if#9", "year": "2020", "decisionMaker": "Public Health England", "decision": "Load laboratory results into a spreadsheet format with a fixed row limit as part of the national Covid-19 reporting pipeline", "kind": "execution", "kindLabel": "Executing large change", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Poor", "lesson": "Every tool has limits; find them before the data does.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Spreadsheets", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-for-asking-what-if/#decision-10" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-for-asking-what-if#10", "year": "2020", "decisionMaker": "HUGO Gene Nomenclature Committee", "decision": "Rename 27 human genes whose symbols spreadsheets turned into dates", "kind": "execution", "kindLabel": "Executing large change", "position": "community", "positionLabel": "Researchers and communities", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When a tool is universal, it is often cheaper to change your conventions than to change it, but notice what that says about who shapes whom.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Spreadsheets", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-for-asking-what-if/#decision-11" }, { "id": "essay:notes-that-talk-back#3", "year": "2020", "decisionMaker": "Obsidian", "decision": "Store notes as plain Markdown files on the user’s own computer", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Letting users leave easily can be the reason they stay.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Note-Taking Apps", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/notes-that-talk-back/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:the-walled-garden#5", "year": "2021–2025", "decisionMaker": "Apple", "decision": "Respond to a court order requiring it to let developers link to outside payments by charging a 27 percent commission on such purchases and adding warning screens", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Poor", "lesson": "When a court or regulator tells you to change, minimal compliance can cost more than the change.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "App Stores and Platforms", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-walled-garden/#decision-6" }, { "id": "essay:the-library-in-the-air#8", "year": "2022–2023", "decisionMaker": "Netflix", "decision": "Add a cheaper plan with advertising and charge for accounts shared outside the household", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Once a service is a habit, the terms it began with become negotiable.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Music and Video Streaming", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-library-in-the-air/#decision-9" }, { "id": "essay:the-walled-garden#6", "year": "2022–2024", "decisionMaker": "European Union (Digital Markets Act)", "decision": "Require designated gatekeepers to allow alternative app stores, sideloading and outside payment, and ban self-preferencing", "kind": "regulation", "kindLabel": "Public rules", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Too early", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Rules written in advance change behaviour only if their enforcement is credible.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "App Stores and Platforms", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-walled-garden/#decision-7" }, { "id": "essay:what-you-might-also-like#6", "year": "2022", "decisionMaker": "Meta (Instagram)", "decision": "Fill the main feed with full-screen recommended videos from accounts users did not follow, following TikTok", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Changing what a product is for its existing users needs their consent, or at least their patience.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Recommendation Feeds", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/what-you-might-also-like/#decision-7" }, { "id": "essay:what-you-might-also-like#7", "year": "2022–2023", "decisionMaker": "European Union (Digital Services Act)", "decision": "Require the largest platforms to explain their recommender systems and offer at least one option not based on profiling", "kind": "regulation", "kindLabel": "Public rules", "position": "public", "positionLabel": "Public body", "outcome": "Too early", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Giving people a choice matters less than which option you make the default.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Recommendation Feeds", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/what-you-might-also-like/#decision-8" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-that-answers#2", "year": "2022", "decisionMaker": "OpenAI (ChatGPT)", "decision": "Release a free chat interface to an existing model as a “research preview”", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "The interface that lets ordinary people try a capability can matter more than the next improvement in the capability.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Large Language Models", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-that-answers/#decision-3" }, { "id": "essay:the-gift-that-runs-the-world#8", "year": "2023", "decisionMaker": "Meta (Llama)", "decision": "Release the weights of its large language models for broad use under a custom licence, rather than offering them only through an API", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Too early", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "Openness can be a strategy as well as a principle, and the two are worth telling apart.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Open Source Software", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-gift-that-runs-the-world/#decision-9" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-for-asking-what-if#11", "year": "2023–2026", "decisionMaker": "Microsoft (Excel)", "decision": "Add Python and an AI assistant inside the spreadsheet", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Too early", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When you make a powerful tool easier to use, make it easier to check as well.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Spreadsheets", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-for-asking-what-if/#decision-12" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-that-answers#3", "year": "2023", "decisionMaker": "Google (Bard)", "decision": "Announce a public chatbot quickly in response to ChatGPT, with a promotional demonstration", "kind": "new-category", "kindLabel": "New categories and markets", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "When the known flaw of a technology is that it is confidently wrong, the launch itself must be checked against that flaw.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Large Language Models", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-that-answers/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-that-answers#4", "year": "2023", "decisionMaker": "Meta (Llama)", "decision": "Release capable language models with downloadable weights that others could run and modify", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "If a technology complements your business rather than being it, giving it away can weaken competitors more than selling it would strengthen you.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Large Language Models", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-that-answers/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-that-answers#9", "year": "2023", "decisionMaker": "Microsoft (Bing chat)", "decision": "Put an OpenAI model into its search engine within weeks of ChatGPT’s launch, then cap conversations when it misbehaved", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "challenger", "positionLabel": "Challenger", "outcome": "Mixed", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "A challenger can afford public experiments that an incumbent cannot; plan the limits you will add before you need them.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Large Language Models", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-that-answers/#decision-10" }, { "id": "essay:ink-that-never-dries#3", "year": "2023–2025", "decisionMaker": "Microsoft and Google", "decision": "Make the word processor write: drafts, rewrites and summaries, priced into subscriptions", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Too early", "process": null, "lesson": "When you automate the core activity, decide deliberately whether to do the work for users or to make them better at it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Word Processors", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/ink-that-never-dries/#decision-4" }, { "id": "essay:who-pays-for-a-message#4", "year": "2023–", "decisionMaker": "Communication software makers", "decision": "Add AI assistants that summarise, triage and draft messages", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "industry", "positionLabel": "Industry-wide", "outcome": "Too early", "process": null, "lesson": "Before automating an activity, ask whether it should happen at all.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Communication Tools", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/who-pays-for-a-message/#decision-5" }, { "id": "essay:notes-that-talk-back#4", "year": "2023", "decisionMaker": "Google (NotebookLM) and others", "decision": "Let a model read a person’s notes and answer questions grounded in them", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Too early", "process": null, "lesson": "When AI removes effort, ask whether the effort was the point.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Note-Taking Apps", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/notes-that-talk-back/#decision-5" }, { "id": "memo:meta-year-of-efficiency", "year": "2023", "decisionMaker": "Mark Zuckerberg", "decision": "Cut about 10,000 jobs and 5,000 open roles, remove layers of management and cancel lower-priority projects, while protecting investment in AI and the long-term technology bets.", "kind": "focus-and-resources", "kindLabel": "Focus, exit and investment", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": null, "lesson": "Fewer layers and smaller management spans can speed decisions; measure the number of layers between a decision-maker and the work.", "source": "Memo", "subject": "Update on Meta’s Year of Efficiency", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/memos/meta-year-of-efficiency/" }, { "id": "essay:the-auction-behind-the-answer#8", "year": "2024", "decisionMaker": "Google (AI Overviews)", "decision": "Put AI-generated answers at the top of the results page, above the links", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Too early", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When you answer the question yourself, you take on responsibility for the answer and for the people who supplied it.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Web Search", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-auction-behind-the-answer/#decision-9" }, { "id": "essay:software-you-never-own#8", "year": "2024", "decisionMaker": "Salesforce (Agentforce)", "decision": "Price AI agents by the conversation or action they handle, rather than by human user", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Too early", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When technology changes the unit of value, the pricing unit must follow it, or a competitor will.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Subscription Software (SaaS)", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/software-you-never-own/#decision-9" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-that-answers#5", "year": "2024", "decisionMaker": "Air Canada", "decision": "Let a website chatbot answer policy questions, then argue in a dispute that the chatbot was responsible for its own words", "kind": "trust-and-safety", "kindLabel": "Trust, safety and privacy", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Poor", "lesson": "Whatever your AI says to customers, you have said.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Large Language Models", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-that-answers/#decision-6" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-that-answers#6", "year": "2024–2025", "decisionMaker": "Klarna", "decision": "Replace much of customer service with an AI assistant, then reverse course and hire people again", "kind": "organisation", "kindLabel": "Organisation and governance", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "Measure AI on the cases that matter most, not on the share of cases it can close.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Large Language Models", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-that-answers/#decision-7" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-that-answers#7", "year": "2025", "decisionMaker": "DeepSeek", "decision": "Release a strong reasoning model openly, with a technical report emphasising low training cost", "kind": "open-or-close", "kindLabel": "Opening or closing", "position": "startup", "positionLabel": "Young company", "outcome": "Paid off", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "In a market that assumes scale is the only advantage, a credible demonstration of efficiency can move more than a better product.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Large Language Models", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-that-answers/#decision-8" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-that-answers#10", "year": "2025", "decisionMaker": "OpenAI", "decision": "Add a reward for users’ immediate thumbs-up reactions to the main ChatGPT model, then roll it back", "kind": "product-design", "kindLabel": "Product design", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Backfired", "process": "Weak", "lesson": "If you optimise a product for momentary approval, it will learn to flatter.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Large Language Models", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-that-answers/#decision-11" }, { "id": "essay:the-machine-that-answers#11", "year": "2026", "decisionMaker": "OpenAI", "decision": "Test advertising in ChatGPT for free and low-priced tiers", "kind": "business-model", "kindLabel": "Business model and pricing", "position": "leader", "positionLabel": "Market leader", "outcome": "Too early", "process": "Sound", "lesson": "When a product that answers questions takes advertising, its credibility depends on keeping the two visibly separate.", "source": "Essay", "subject": "Large Language Models", "url": "https://shrikantk.com/blog/the-machine-that-answers/#decision-12" } ] }